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Mathematical and statistical challenge for developers

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Hi guys, a mats/statistical question. I've been asked to make a calculation in SQL (it's more fun that really job..to be honest it's only fun...anyway..) with a situation like this:

38 events ( basketball games). You can  bet in more than, we can say, 100 points or less than 100 points. So you got 76 possibilities. If we decide to bet in 10 events more (IT WOULD BE ALWAYS MORE,OVER) how much is the possibility to win with the different percentage ( I call percentage the over, so the minimun is 10 events more. Of course if you got 38 event OVER the percentage is 100% and you are sure to win).

So far it hard but it become harder if you play for example 25 bets splitting all the events ( that's means for each game the same number of the overall bet). Of course you cannot just summarize the probabilities but you have to come up with a statistical solution...

Any suggestion for the step one and eventually also for the step two?

Thanks ( I repeat, it's for funny but it's a challenge for developers..)


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